Finishing with Delver

I am NOT a math major, or have I actually went through statistical studies in college. What I'm doing here is for my own enjoyment and to help foster discussion of better deck design in Magic: The Gathering using more replicable mathematical theories. I stated that you should be able to discern a deck's attack plan through its sorceries in part 1 of my dissection of Delver. I determined that Delver should run less glacial fortresses in order to not be caught with the card's disadvantage before playing a third land drop in part 2 and part 3. I stated my skepticism tht the loss of Ponder is the main reason why Delver decks disappeared form standard in part 4.

The reason I am skeptical that the loss of Ponder is because the card helped flip a Delver into a 3|2 flyer by the start of the third turn. Realisticly, if you were on the play, youd have had about a 60% chance of Delver flipping already. That is a fairly good percentage in my opinion. What I believe is the cause of Delver's demise is the loss of the spell suit it caried when M13 and RTR rotated into Standard.

4 Gitaxian Probe: {U/p},1CMC,Sorcery, "Cantrip"--LOST with RTR
3 Gut Shot: {R/p}, 1CMC, Instant, 1 damage "Removal" or 1 point "Range"--LOST with RTR
3 Mana Leak: {1U}, 2CMC, Instant, "Soft Counter"--LOST with M13
1 Mutagenic Growth: {G/p}, 1CMC, Instant, "Growth"--LOST with RTR
4 Ponder: {U}, 1CMC, Sorcery, "Scry 3" and "Cantrip"--LOST with M13
4 Thought Scour: {U}, 1CMC, Instant, "Mill" and "Cantrip"
4 Vapor Snag: {U}, 1CMC, Instant, "Bounce Removal" and 1 point "Range"--Lost with RTR

Almost every spell the deck ran is now lost since RTR came out. Several of them "Free" spells thanks to Phyrexian Mana. The deck lost its "Air" with the rotation of gitaxian Pobe, and now has to actually have 60 cards in the deck. Gut shot was actually really good when being cast for free. Mana leak was the best way the deck could protect its flipped Delveron turn 3. Vapor snag was another good way to keep out tempoing your opponent by sending back a newly summoned creature or a potential blocker for a turn. Most importantly: They go so well with a Snapcaster Mage on turn 3!

While I evaluate Sorceries based on the probabilities of casting them on the right turn with the appropriate land, Instants are very reactionary cards. No one has to cast them untl the very last moment you need to cast them. Because of that, I want to look at the probabilities of having instants in hand and how many. The deck begins with 22 instants, counting Flash creatures. The probabilities for instants in an opening hand are:
 

Drawn:	>=1	0	1	2	3+
7	98%	2%	13%	28%	57%

So, a Delver player is fairly likely to have 3 or more instants in hand. 4 are "Free" phyrexian inatnts, 8 are 1CMC, 7 are 2CMC, 3 are 4CMC. I want to draw attention to, at least, how this lines up with the sorcery speed spells.

	"Free"	1CMC	2CMC	3CMC	4CMC
Instants	4	8	7	0	3
Sorceries	0	8	3	4	0

The deck wants to play a 1 CMC sorcery turn 1, this is obvious. If not it does have options in free and 1CMC instants to react to an opponent's opening play. ON Turn 2 it actually wants to lave up its Mana for its Instants. ON Turn 3 it wants to play Geist or leave the mana up for Instants. If you want to count Runechanter's pike as a 4 mana spell (2 to cast, 2 to equip) that's fine. The deck can cast that when ever it wants after the 4th land drop, or leave the mana open for a restoration Angel. This, of course, does not get into all other permustations of events for each turn. Really, though, we just want to etermine what holes along the curve does the instant spells fit into. What turns should the Delver player anticipate leaving mana up for an instant spell.

Delver rana very limited number of effects in the deck. It ran 12 "cantrips", and 7 forms of tempo removal (Vapor Snag and Mana Leak). Gut shot, too, is a form of removal, but I do  not see it in this role in a vacuum. It certainly has the poential to deal 4 damage to a creature or player in conjunction with a Snapcaster Mage at various points in the game, but getting 1 of each card in hand has a low probability. Plus that would suggest a proactive plan instead of a reactive one. Instants, especially int his deck, don't want to be proactively used. Gut shot can be removal, in the early turns, but the deck obviously doesn't want to maximize the use of Gut Shot. It must be wanting to use it for its "Range" function.

Delver didn't lose spells, it lost effects, 8 of its "cantrips" went by the wayside in the rotation to RTR. All of its removal was lost, too. It lost the ability to be a 56 card deck. To adjust to these losses, the deck would have to play an honest 6- cards, and more lands than 19. It loses spell slots to flip Delver and lost consistency. The loss of Ponder did not kill the deck. The loss of Gitaxian probe, Vapor snag, and Mana Leak with it did that. Personally, I think the loss of those 3 spells is more devastating than the loss of Ponder to the success of the deck.