Additionally, I showed my card evaluative abilities, which really were not evaluative. It was more like card analysis. There was some evaluation. I determined Pelakka Wurm was a better creature than Rubblehulk. That does not help determine if Rubbehulk is a good card. That depends on his Bloodrush ability's viability.
I mentioned how I'm trying to use advanced metrics and math to assist me in deck design. Specifically I am trying to determine the probabilities of drawing cards at specific points in the game that advance a winning game plan designed into the deck. This is the scripting I mentioned last post. I want to plan and anticipate my plays from turn 1 all the way to turn 6 or 7.
So what is my plan? First I want to determine the probability of drawing certain effects in my deck at different turns. Here's 2 examples:
Using the HYPGEOMDIST function in Excel I determined the probability of me having at least 1 Rubblehulk in hand by turn 3 if I have 4 copies in my deck. That is 49%
The probability of me having 1 Rubblehulk in hand by turn 6 is 60%
If I wanted to cast Rubblehulk on turn 6, and THEN bloodrush a second one on turn 7 when I could first attack with him, I have a 20% chance of doing that.
This doesn't mean anything if I don't know what is acceptable in decks. Is a 49% chance of drawing a card really a good percentage for wanting to play an effect on turn 3? I'm hoping to take a look at decks in magic's past and determine what their plan was over the course of a game. I assume plays/effects that have higher percentage of occurring on specific turns are what the deck wants to do each turn. This can give me an idea of what are considered acceptable play percentages for effects in decks.
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