Jund

Jund:
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
1 Forest
1 Marsh Flats
1 Overgrown Tomb
2 Raging Ravine
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
4 Treetop Village
3 Twilight Mire
4 Verdant Catacobs
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Dark Confidant
4 Kitchen Finks
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Jund Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Terminate
2 Thoughtsieze
4 Liliana of the Veil

Jund. It is beautilful. It is elegant. It actually has very few tings it does. It has 10 creatures that are/can get bigger than their mana cost (Raging Ravine, Treetop Village, Tarmogoyf). It can remove threats (19 removal/discard spells!). Nothing costs more than 4 mana (Only Bloodbraid Elf is 4). It even sits at the table with an advantage. For all intents and purposes, Jund is a 59 card deck. Well, that is because of the Sac lands.

Sacri-NICE!

I'm using the sample deck WotC provided on their site for the 1-2-13 Deck of the Day, I tried doing as much math as I could to determine how often you'll draw 1, 2, or 3 sac lands in your starting hand if there are 5 in the deck.

Mathematically, you have a 38% chance of drawing exactly 1 sac land in hand, 9% chance of drawing 2, and ~1% chance of drawing three in hand. Getting 4 or 5 in immensely and statisticly unlikely. Drawing 4 in an opening hand is a 3 in 10,000 proposition. Adding all the realistic probabilities up you have a 47.5% chance of having a Sac land in your opening hand. 47.5% of the time, you'll be making your next draws wih 52 cards left in your deck instead of 53.

Honestly, the permutations and pobabilities of predicting how many cards you virtually have in your deck running the sac lands is mindboggling. Just being quick and easy about it, given when you could draw into a sac land between turns 1-3, it is best to just say you hve a 59 card deck when determining probabilities for drawing cards. For Turn 1 jund already is virtually a 59.5 card deck, and that's not accounting for drawing and/or playing a Sac land for turns 2 or 3.

So over the time of a game a modern Jund deck plays as if it were presented as a 59 card deck. That's only wih 5 sac lands.  

Thinnnnnnerrrrrrr

Of course, that advantage grows once Dark Confidant and/or Bloodbaid elf hits the board. While the Sac Lands thin out your deck, making it smaller, these two cards let you draw into playable spells more often. If a Confidant hits, here's how quickly your deck shrinks:

Cards drawn|Cards left in deck (start w/ 59 thanks to virtual thin from Sac land)

Start: 0|59
T1: 7|52
T2: 8|51
*play Dark Canfodant*
T3: 10|49
T4: 12|47
*play Bloodbraid elf*
*cascade*
T5: 14+Cascade|45-Cascade

So, what are the chances of playing these cards on time? Assuming you hit your land drops appropriately and given the advantage of thinnign from your sac land you can expect the play a dark confidant:

T2: 45%
T3: 49%

At Turn 4 you can start expecting to play bloodbraid elf. Now the percentage of hitting a spell that nets you an extra card to play are:

T4: 80%
T5: 83%
T6: 86%

I now want to know whether Jund wants to play Dark COnfidant on tun 2. Maybe it would like to do that, but it can live without it.

Math Effect

I broke each card in the deck down into the effects it wants to play/can play. This is my interpretation of what players hope to accomplish with each card in the deck. An example is a card like Thoughtsieze. It is discard, but it is targeted discard that is really acting as pseudo removal.

Jund actually has very few effects going on. It plays creatures (22), removal (19), and has small themes around discard (10 cards) and card drawing/advantage (8 cards). Out of its creatures, 10 are/can get bigger than their CMC, and 4 have persist. 14 of these guys will be hard to bring down

Creatures: 22
Cast Turn1: 0
Cast T2: 12 (Treetop Vllage, Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf
Cast T3: 4 (Kitchen Finks)
Cast T4: 6 (Raging Ravine, Bloodbraid Elf)

Probabilities of playing an on curve creature each turn:
T1 1CMC: 0%
T2 2CMC: 86%
T3 3CMC: 50%
T4 4CMC: 69%

Probbilities of playing your 1st of any creature of the game
T1 1CMC max: 0
T2 2CMC max: 86%
T3 3CMC max: 96%
T4 4CMC max: 99%

Probabilities of playing creatures each turn within curve
T1 1CMC: 0
T2 2CMC: 86%
T3 2/3CMC: 73%
T4 2/3/4CMC: 62%

Percetage wise, Jund is pretty capable of playing its creatures when it needs to. More than half its games it will curve fairly well.

(re)MOVE! Get out the way!

Removal: 19 spells
1CMC: 10 (Thoughtsieze, Inquisition, and Lightning Bolt)
2CMC: 2 (Terminate)
3CMC: 7 (Liliana, Jund Charm, Maelstrom Pulse)

Probabilities of playing an on curve removal spell each turn:
T1 1CMC: 74%
T2 2CMC: 25%
T3 3CMC: 70%

Probabilities of playing your 1st of any removal spell in game
T1 1CMC max: 75%
T2 2CMC max: 85%
T3 3CMC max: 98%

Probabilities of playing removal spells each turn within curve
T1 1CMC: 75%
T2 1/2CMC: 50%
T3 1/2/3CMC: 42%

Removal is so situationally oriented, though. Lets see how many cards of castable removal we can expect in hand at the start of the game.

Opening Hand:
None in Hand-6%
1 in Hand-22% (53% 1CMC) (11% 2CMC) (36% 3CMC)
2 in Hand-33% (79% min 1-1CMC) (20% min 1-2CMC)
>2 in Hand-39% (91% min 1-1CMC) (30% min 1-2CMC) (77% min 1-3CMC)
3 in Hand-25% (91% min 1-1CMC) (30% min 1-2CMC) (77% min 1-3CMC)
>3 in Hand-13%

Percentages of the amount of removal that will pass throgh your hand will go up as you draw cards, but this gives us an idea of what Jund has to start with and how long it can last dealing with its opponent's threats.

It is the little things that count

Jund also has a small discard theme (10 Cards), and a small draw/card advantage theme (8 cards).
There are several small synergies, too, in the deck. Bloodbriad Elf, Liliana, and the Sac Lands (13 card) all help grow Tarmogofy if your opponent is just a goldfish.

'Goyf can get about as big as a 5/6 when it is all said and done just on cards in the deck.

Liliana's discard ability can be mitigated somewhat if you have a Bob on the board. At least your hand won't get smaller than what it would normally do.

Oh you mana! Don't you cry for me

So, lets get beyond curve for a bit and discuss what Jund wants from its mana. Cards in the deck top out on 4 mana, so lets determine the likelihood of Jund getting to 4 mana:

Lands: 25 (Sac Lands can produce mana with fetched land once cracked)
Cards in Deck: 55 (however, counting Sac Lands as blanks)
T4: 76% likelihood it has 4 or more lands in hand
T5: 84%
T6: 90%

In truth this is a rather complicated item for me to develop data for only because of how the sac lands work. They thin the deck and w/o a set pattern for their appearance and use, its hard to predict the effect of the thinning. Some turn 3s the deck may have 51 cards left, and some it may have 50 left, and the rare occassion it may have 47 left if it has 3 sac lands used and that isn't counting Dark Confidants helping to fuel the hand. Lets just say that if it wants 4 mana on turn 4, it'll get that much.

Come Together

So, lets see how I can read thi data using my very bad and probably very wrong math.
Jund wants its turns to look something like this:
Shuffle and draw: Open hand with 1 sac land and 3 removal spells
Turn 1: (on the darw)Draw, play sac land, crack it, play Thoughtsieze/Inquisition(54% on the play/59% on the draw), or do nothing (46/41%)
Turn 2: Draw, play land, play 2CMC creture (86%) or removal in hand (1/2 CMC)
Turn 3: Draw, play land, play 2/3CMC creature (73% in curve) and/or removal in hand (1 CMC)
Turn 4: Draw, play land, play creature on curve (62% chance) most likely Dark COnfidant or Bloodbraid elf (80% chance creature is this). Between having 1,2, or >2 removal spells Jund is more likely to have 3 or more in its opening hand. This is the best time to lay down one of these creature and get that 4th one in your hands.
By turn 5 it has played out its script. Jund needs to have one of its larger creatures on the board (92% likelihood, 33% chance of having >2 3/3s or better on board) and keep its hand restocked with removal. By this point it is up to the pilot to see the deck to victory.

Finale

Jund can do several things:
It is virtually a 59 card deck
It has a better than 50% chance each turn to play a creature along its curve.
It, most likely, will have 3 or more removal spells in its hand rather than just 1 or 2
By turn 5 you will have to get through at least 3 creatures that are 3/3 or better