Bursting onto the scene

Hello and welcome to the first post of my site. On this page I hope to develop and implement advanced metrics in evaluating Magic: the Gathering cards and deck design. To provide insight on what I am attempting to do, my first post will be deconstructing a preview card from the upcoming Gatecrash set: Rubblehulk:

This card is pretty much a split card. The two spells you have an option of casting here are either Dakkon Blackblade for {4RG}, or Strength of Cedars for {1RG}

First there's the creature part. Lets just break it down into its components then compare it to Dakkon:

Rubblehulk {4RG}

Creature-Elemental

Rubblehulk's power and toughness are 

each equal to the number of lands you 

control.

*/*

So we have a 6 mana creature that, if you cast it on curve, is a 6/6. Anytime before that it is a smaller P/T value for its cost. 

How does this card stack up historically? First, the text is word for word what you would find on Dakkon Blackblade:

Average community rating for this guy is at 4.354/5 when he was last released for Modern Masters. People love him for his flavor. We still have a 6/6 for 6 on curve and a smaller P/T value for its cost if he's powered out before getting your sixth land.

Just to give another comparison, here's the on color and similar Molimo, Maro-Sorcerer:

For 1 more mana trampling gets tacked onto this guy. When he was released on Tenth edition, he rated as 4.089/5. Mostly this, too, is based on nostalgia and love of casual play. One poster pointed out Molimo doesn't look so great when compared to Pelakka Wurm:

Yeah, I'd rather this guy than Rubblehulk on the board. 

Now lets look at the second part of Rubblehulk, his Bloodrush ability: 

Rubblehulk Bloodrush {1RG}

Instant

Rubblehulk Bloodrush is uncounterable 

Target attacking creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X 

is the number of lands you control.

This is an uncounterable Giant Growth for 3 mana on curve. Is that an ability that is worth its spot on the curve at 3 or above?

This is almost word for word from another card that was found in Champions of Kamigawa, Strength of Cedars.

Average community rating or this spell was a 1.924/5. The general consensus is that is was WAY overcosted compared to a similar but narrower card from Zendikar, Primal Bellow

Average community rating for this spell was 4.222/5. It can best work in monocolor decks and it matches Giant Growth for value once you are at 3 forests. 

So we're looking at a card that is a better valued, uncounterable Strength of Cedars, and at the 3 mana spot in the curve is as valuable as a Giant Growth. Its best competition is the narrower Primal Bellow which, while cheaper, would be equal to a giant growth at the 3 mana spot, if you are running monogreen or have 3 forests in play in whatever deck you are playing. Is this the spot you want to play this card in though?

The advantage of Primal bellow is really at turns 4 or higher. The mana you'll still have up free after casting it will allow you to cast a very credible threat for 3 or more mana in the future. Also, if you have 4 forests in play on turn 4 you're getting better than Giant Growth value out of Primal Bellow. Rubblehulk is really its most efficient on your curve at turn 3.

So there is Rubblehulk, dissected like a high school frog. You can get a 3 mana, uncounterable Strength of Cedars or a Red/Green Dakkon Blackblade out of just one card. 

Now, this isn't just what I'm doing on this site. I want to also use this information in deck design. Specifically, I'm interested in scripting my games. I want to look at my decks and ask what I want to do to win the game, how will I get there over the turns of the game, and what is my likelihood of my script happening. I want to deal in probabilities to build the most efficient, consistent deck that I can.