Thursday, January 31, 2013

Trollololol

Every Thursday I drink A LOT of coffee at work. Coffe is specially made in appreciation for the unwashed masses that patronize my workplace that morning. The coffee is NEVER finished because we have to ensure enough for everyone that comes by and there's NO WAY that it'll ever be finished through NORMAL human consumption. After the crowds have had their opportunity to drink from the cup o' Joe  there's the question of what to do with the leftovers. I answer the pleas of the proletariate and CHUG THAT SHIT. This is absolutely very Golgari of me, to not waste what NATURE and Mr. COFFE has brewed for ALL OF US TO CONSUME! I am, however, WIRED the remainder of the day. I can taste time as it slowly winds down towards the end of the workday and it is AMAZING! I've accessed OMNISCIENCE. I spend the rest of time at work conversing with the denizens of THE WARP which helps pass the indetemrinable eternity of the remainder of my work day.

Me: I need to think of a standard rogue deck, now, while I can swim in the aether of imaginative thought!

Xthulp the Cantankerous: chtk-stk-nck

Me: Absolutely we'll topple the Ziggurat of Hope's Flame AFTER I CRUSH FNM.

Ryback: FEED ME MORE!



Mulling the chaos within my mind gave me an epiphany. I REALLY want to make a deck that uses the new Windfall. So I need a deck that wants to keep refueling its hand. This either means it needs to be full of cheap spells, want a full graveyard, or wants to pitch these cards for actvated abilities that require discarding cards.


Hello Gorgeous!

There is now a caveat, then. This budding Rogue deck needs LOTS of Creatures.

Also, lets look at what there is to play with, here. The Troll does have an activted ability that helps keep it around in case someone wants to stop all my fun. Is there a way that I can get BBG by turn 2?




 Well, there we go.

OK, lets MATH! If I have 4 Trolls in my deck, the chance of having 1 in hand by turn 2 is: 44/49% (On play/On draw). The chance of having an Arbor Elf Turn 1 and an Overgrown Tomb turn 2 is 18/21%. So, I have around a 1/5 chance of having 3 mana, and it at least taps for BB? by turn 2. Y'know what, though, what else is a BB? spell?

Hello Sexy!

Now, I don't want to draw her more often than I can cast her. So if I can cast Arbor Elf turn 1 and have Overgrown tomb in play by turn 2 18/21% of the time, how many Liliana's does the deck need to draw her less than that?


 
     Lilianas in Deck
Cards in Hand1234
712%22%32%40%
813%25%35%44%
915%28%39%49%

So, with 1 Liliana I get a 12/13% split, with 2 I get a 22/25% split. I'll go with 2 Lilianas.

So I have the the making sof a deck that, if I want to use Whispering Madness to draw creatures to pitch to Lotleth Troll, I'm looking at a BUG deck. Since I'm leaving myselfopen to a delightful option of dreaming of 3 mana bu turn 2 to cast Troll and have mana up to Regenerate him, I might as well look for a card that is pretty tasty to cast turn 2, Liliana of the Veil. I'm now looking at a deck that is:

If I want to guarantee a likelihood of having 3 lands in hand and having a 4th one to play on turn 4, that's 23 lands.

04x Arbor Elf
04x Overgrown Tomb
19x LAND
04x Lotleth Troll
02x liliana of the Veil
04x Whispering Madness
37x CARDS

23x Cards left to play with

Liliana is already committing the deck to running creature removal at no more than 3CMC, the Troll is committing the deck to having creatures to play by turn 2, and if those creatures have a non-{T} activated ability, the better. The Troll asks the deck to utilize the Graveyard as a dumping ground for creatures, so creatures I can cast from the Graveyard or that can return from the graveyard to hand on their are preferred. They should be in BUG colors, as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment