Thursday, January 17, 2013

Bant Auras, Ramp, and accessible Mana

So the first theory I've developed is that you can intuit a deck's plan of attack through the sorceries it wants to cast at applicable turns. The second theory I'm intereted in using to design decks is anticipating on mana and how many copies of sorceries you need to have them in hand when you reach that anticipated mana.

I wanted to look at Bant Auras, to start. The deck John Stern used to win GP: Atlantic City ran 23 lands. What turns could he anticipate his land drops?
  
         Total Cards Drawn
Cards in Hand78910111213
03%2%1%0%0%0%0%
114%9%6%4%2%1%1%
229%23%18%13%9%6%4%
330%30%28%24%20%16%12%
418%23%26%27%27%24%21%
56%10%15%19%23%25%25%
61%3%5%9%13%17%20%
70%0%1%3%5%8%11%


Percentage wise, Bant was most likely to have 3 lands in its opening hand than any other number. In total, it had a 54% to have 3 or more in its open. Bant doesn't run any card drawn when it draws its 8th card, so that puts it on its scond turn on the play. Bant isn't more likely to have 4 lands in hand until the 10th card drawn, 4th turn on the play. Its fifth card drawn isn't likely to happen until the 12th card drawn, turn 6.

I have no earthly idea if I am interpretin this math right, guys and gals.

Bant, though, does run mana acceleration. It runs 2 forms of 1 mana acceleration, Avacyn's Pilgrim and Abundant Growth.

        Total Cards Drawn
Cards in Hand78910111213
035%29%25%21%18%15%12%
142%42%41%39%37%35%32%
219%22%25%28%30%32%33%
34%6%8%10%12%15%17%
40%1%1%2%3%4%5%


There is a 65% chance, total, Bant has AT LEAST one of these cards in it opening hand. It doesnt have a higher probability of having 2 in hand than 1 until the 6th turn on the play (13th card drawn)

Bant has a 97% probability to  have at least 1 land in hand when it opens its turn. It has a 65% chance of having acceleration. By turn 1 it has 2 mana to start turn 2 65% of the time. It starts with, actually, 1.65 land in hand.

Anyway, point being, Bant's mana actually anticipates to move like this:

Turn 1: Land, Mana Accel (2)
Turn 2: Land (3)
Turn 3: Land (4)
Turn 4: Land (5)
Turn 5: Miss (5)
Turn 6: Land (6)

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