Flip Mode

There are 23 Instants or Sorceries in the sample Delver deck, this includes the empty calories of the Gitaxian Probes. They really are good for nothing. I'm trying to think, now, why I just didn't run 4 of them in my RDW deck last year. In a 60 card deck, that's 38% of the deck.

	Instants of Sorceries in Hand
Drawn:	>=1	0	1	2	3	3+
7	97%	3%	14%	29%	30%	55%

There will most likely be 3 or more cards that are instants of sorceries (55%) in an opening hand of 7.
The deck runs an abudance of these types of cards so that it can flip Delver. Here's another good use for Gitaxian Probe! It makes Delver a 56 card deck, AND it can help increase the odds of flipping Delver!
In fact, I want to calculate the odds of flipping a delver. I want to determine the chance of drawing and instant or sorcery depending on how many cards have been drawn in the game and how many instant or sorceries have already been drawn.

	Sorceries or Instants already Drawn
Draw	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
8	43%	42%	40%	38%	36%	34%	32%	30%
9	44%	42%	40%	38%	37%	35%	33%	31%
10	45%	43%	41%	39%	37%	35%	33%	31%
11	46%	44%	42%	40%	38%	36%	34%	32%
12	47%	45%	43%	41%	39%	37%	35%	33%
13	48%	46%	44%	42%	40%	38%	35%	33%
14	49%	47%	45%	43%	40%	38%	36%	34%
15	50%	48%	46%	43%	41%	39%	37%	35%
16	51%	49%	47%	44%	42%	40%	38%	36%
17	52%	50%	48%	45%	43%	41%	39%	36%
18	53%	51%	49%	47%	44%	42%	40%	37%
19	55%	52%	50%	48%	45%	43%	40%	38%

The percentages are for whether the card being drawn is an instant or sorcery. So if there were 0 Instant or sorceries drawn in an opening hand of 7, then there's a 43% chance that the 8th car drawn is an instant or sorcery. If there are 7 sorceries drawn to start the game and for some reason this hand was not mulliganed (I'm guessing SWAT raid interrupting the game) the chance that the 8th card drawn is an instant or sorcery is 29%. If the hand is average and there's 3 sorceries or instant in the opening hand, the 8th card drawn would have a...38% chance of being an instant or sorcery. It is funny how math works predictably like this, sometimes. It makes sense, though. If cards were being drawn and instants or sorceries were showing up within average, then there'd be an average chance of drawing an instant or sorcery on the following turn.

Ponder can allow anyone to cheat these projections, sort of. Because it is a sorcery it has to be played in the main phase. The same goes for Delver. So, at best, Turn 1 on the play you could go: play land that produces {U}, Tap land for {U}, cast ponder/delver, end turn. Turn 2: if Delver was played last turn, check top card if it is instant or sorcery, play land, tap a land for {U}, play ponder/delver, end turn. Turn 3: Check top card (better be a freaking instant or sorcery), flip Delver, Smash. Ponder can set up a more likely Delver flip by allowing a player to look at the next 3 cards down. It is just that it can only set up a more likely turn 3 flip since there is no way Ponder could be cast before a draw step. Stupid sorcery rules.

What I find absolutely fascinating is that the 35-40% probability of flipping a Delver on any turn, IF Delver was even drawn, is so acceptable for people playing the deck. Once Ponder left standard, though, Delver became non-existent as a deck. Ponder would only improve the chances of creating a Delver flip for the third turn. I seriously don't believe the loss of Ponder killed the deck.

This is especially relevant since there was a card previewed for Gatecrash that could help revive Delver as a deck archetype: Dimir Charm. Coming down the pipe, instant speed library manipulation similar to Ponder, for 2 mana! Now there's the chance to "ponder" at the start of the upkeep. It still prevents using the "ponder" to flip Delver prior to turn 3.