5-26-13

My % Vegas Line Kelly Level UP! Bal-Gonzalez 53% -125 0% --- Tor-Jenkins 47% -105 0% Min-Pelfrey 36% 190 2% -2% Det-Scherzer 64% -240 0% Chi-Garza 44% 155 8% -8% Cin-Cueto 56% -185 0% Cle-Kluber 47% 105 0% --- Bos-Doubront 53% -135 0% Phi-Hamels 44% 135 3% 0% Was-Strasburg 56% -165 0% NY-Sabathia 53% 105 8% -8% TB-Cobb 47% -135 0% Mia-Sanabia 43% 165 8% -8% Chi-Axelrod 57% -200 0% LA-Williams 57% -125 3% -3% KC-Davis 43% 100 0% Pit-Rodriguez 51% 105 4% 5% Mil-Gallardo 49% -135 0% Oak-Colon 66% -175 7% 4% Hou-Keuchel 34% 145 0% Col-Garland 46% 145 9% --- SF-Cain 54% -175 0% Tex-Tepesch 50% -105 0% --- Sea-Iwakuma 51% -125 0% StL-Miller 50% 115 7% --- LA-Kershaw 50% -145 0% SD-Marquis 38% 150 0% --- Ari-Corbin 62% -180 0% Atl-Teheran 49% -135 0% --- NY-Marcum 57% 105 4%

5-25-13 0.79-->0.86

My % Vegas Line Kelly Level UP! Bal-Garcia 44% 125 0% --- Tor-Dickey 56% -155 0% Cle-Kazmir 40% 145 0% --- Bos-Lester 60% -175 0% LA-Buckner 54% 100 8% 8% KC-Guthrie 46% -130 0% Pit-Locke 47% -105 0% --- Mil-Fiers 53% -125 0% NY-Nuno 51% 145 0 (17)% --- TB-Moore 49% -175 0% Min-Walters 36% 190 2% 4% Det-Fister 64% -240 0% Chi-Wood 42% 140 1% 1% Cin-Bailey 58% -170 0% Col-Nicasio 55% 105 0 (12)% --- SF-Zito 45% -135 0% Mia-Nolasco 41% 170 6% -6% Chi-Peay 59% -210 0% Oak-Griffin 62% -165 0% --- Hou-Harrell 38% 135 0% StL-Gast 45% -115 0% 3% LA-Lilly 55% -115 3% Phi-Pettibone 37% 120 0% 0% Was-Haren 63% -150 8% Atl-Minor 60% -165 0% --- NY-Gee 40% 135 0% Tex-Holland 54% 105 0 (10)% --- Sea-Hernandez 46% -135 0% SD-Cashner 43% 100 0% -1% Ari-Miley 57% -130 1%

5-24: 1.10-->0.79

	My %	Vegas Line	Kelly	Level UP!
Phi-Kendrick	42%	150	3%	-3%
Was-Zimmermann	58%	-180	0%
Bal-Tillman	49%	-120	0%	--
Tor-Nolin	51%	-110	0%
Min-Deduno	35%	190	1%	-1%
Det-Sanchez	65%	-240	0%
Cle-Masterson	51%	-115	0%	--
Bos-Lackey	49%	-115	0%
Chi-Feldman	45%	125	0%	--
Cin-Arroyo	56%	-155	0%
Atl-Medlen	62%	-170	0%	--
NY-Hefner	39%	140	0%
NY-Phelps	48%	-115	0%	--
TB-Hernandez	52%	-115	0%
Mia-Koehler	39%	150	0%	--
Chi-Danks	61%	-180	0%
LA-Vargas	60%	-125	10%	-10%
KC-Mendoza	40%	-105	0%
Pit-Burnett	51%	-115	0%	--
Mil-Estrada	50%	-115	0%
Oak-Milone	63%	-170	0%	--
Hou-Bedard	37%	140	0%
SD-Stults	36%	110	0%	-14
Ari-McCarthy	64%	-140	14%
Tex-Grimm	54%	-125	0%	--
Sea-Saunders	46%	-105	0%
StL-Lynn	52%	-130	0%	--
LA-Capuano	48%	100	0%
Col-Chatwood	45%	125	1%	--
SF-Lincecum	55%	-155	0%

5-23-13: Total Domination at 1.07-->1.10

Geez. Talk about Handicapping Baeball and watch your page views go up by, like, a billion percent.

Before I start posting picks and lines, I need to first state the one exception i make to my picks. I never trust any pick I make when my system says a team has a better than 50% chance of winning a game in 5 innings and the line has that team as a greater than even underdog.

In other news, Kevin Gausman takes the mound today almost a year after he was drafted. I'm excited by this since I am an LSU baseball fan. I am less excited that he is starting against Toronto, which is my favorite team. When you are an 8 year old and your favorite color is blue, you pick the team with blue in their name.

This is about Magic, though. So the Legend rule is about to be changed. Now each player can have a legendary permanent or planeswalker that shares a name/type with one their opponent has on the board. I'm honestly of the opinion that this is because of RTR draft and sealed and that Theros may have a legends sub-theme to it. How this will affect standard I have no clue but it does have interesting implications in limited formats. DGM was a small set that has 10 rare legendary creatures. Since they are at rare there will be a bunch of them running around tables in large limited events. So, say you're playing a Mirko Vosk deck and you run across 2-4 other Mirko decks in limited it won't detract from your limited deck's performance. I'm seeing the argument that it will make limited more fun for casual players. I personally have no care one way or the other about this. I never used Legendary cards as doom blades. I guess this'll affect how people view clones, now, though.

Picks:

 

	My %	Vegas Line	Kelly	Level UP!
Chi-Jackson	55%	105	12%	0%
Pit-Gomez	45%	-135	0%
Bal-Gausman	51%	100	1%	-1%
Tor-Morrow	50%	-130	0%
Min-Diamond	43%	145	3%	4%
Det-Porcello	58%	-175	0%
Cle-McAllister	44%	115	0%	0%
Bos-Dempster	56%	-145	0%
LA-Blanton	58%	105	18%	0%
KC-Santana	42%	-135	0%

I'd lay off a Kelly pick that has a team as a favorite in my percentage, has them as a greater than even underdog, AND has a Kelly percentage greater than 10%. Just me personally. This is me being a coward.

Also, I'm using another corollary: Fuck Joe Blanton. I would never trust ANY game Joe Blanton pitches in. I distrust him as much as I am certain Dallas Keuchel must have a WHIP over 9000.

Update: So, bad beat? 2 run HR by Miggy in the bottom of the 1st. Gausman gives up a 2 run HR with 2 outs bottom of the 5th. Hunter u betray my trust.

Update: Bot 5, Min 5 Det 2, Bases loaded, 2 outs, Cabrera at bat. Oh hell...

Update (1 min late): 5-3, Bases loaded, 2 outs, Fielder at bat. :(

Update: Thank GAWD. 

5-22-13 DOMINATION 0.87-->1.07

Away-Prob My % Money Line Kelly Level Up! Home-Prob My % Money Line Kelly Min-Worley 44% 165 9% -9% Atl-Maholm 57% -200 0% Cin-Latos 57% -110 10% 0% NY-Harvey 43% -120 0% LA-Ryu 62% -110 20% 18% Mil-Peralta 38% -120 0% Oak-Parker 46% -110 0% 0% Tex-Wolf 54% -120 0% Ari-Cahill 52% 100 4% -4% Col-De La Rosa 48% -130 0% Was-Gonzalez 43% 125 0% 0% SF-Bumgarner 58% -155 0% TB-Hellickson 46% -115 0% 0% Tor-Buehrle 54% -115 1% NY-Kuroda 48% -125 0% 2% Bal-Hammel 52% -105 2% Sea-Maurer 39% 160 1% -1% LA-Wilson 61% -190 0% Det-Verlander 61% -150 2% 2% Cle-Jimenez 39% 120 0% Chi-Samardzija 49% 105 0% 0% Pit-Liriano 52% -135 0% Phi-Lee 68% -180 9% 5% Mia-Slowey 33% 150 0% Bos-Buchholz 57% -145 0% 0% Chi-Santiago 43% 115 0% KC-Shield 59% -210 0% 11% Hou-Lyles 41% 170 6% StL-Lyons 54% -120 0% SD-Smith 47% -110 0%